Regulation of provider networks in response to COVID-19.

In public health insurance programs, federal and state regulators use network adequacy standards to ensure that health plans provide enrollees with adequate access to care. These standards are based on provider availability, anticipated enrollment, and patterns of care delivery. We anticipate that the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic will have 3 main effects on provider networks and their regulation: enrollment changes, changes to the provider landscape, and changes to care delivery. Regulators will need to ensure that plans adjust their network size should there be increased enrollment or increased utilization caused by forgone care. Regulators will also require updated monitoring data and plan network data that reflect postpandemic provider availability. Telehealth will have a larger role in care delivery than in the prepandemic period, and regulators will need to adapt network standards to accommodate in-person and virtual care delivery.

Hospitalizations from covid-19: a health planning tool.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the future number of hospitalizations from Covid-19 based on the number of diagnosed positive cases. METHOD: Using the covid-19 Panel data recorded in Spain at the Red Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiológica, Renave (Epidemiological Surveillance Network), a regression model with multiplicative structure is adjusted to explain and predict the number of hospitalizations from the lagged series of positive cases diagnosed from May 11, 2020 to September 20, 2021. The effect of the time elapsed since the vaccination program starting on the number of hospitalizations is reviewed. RESULTS: Nine days is the number of lags in the positive cases series with greatest explanatory power on the number of hospitalizations. The variability of the number of hospitalizations explained by the model is high (adjusted R2: 96.6%). Before the vaccination program starting, the expected number of hospitalizations on day t was 20.2% of the positive cases on day t-9 raised to 0.906. After the vaccination program started, this percentage was reduced by 0.3% a day. Using the same model, we find that in the first pandemic wave the number of positive cases was more than six times that reported on official records. CONCLUSIONS: Starting from the covid-19 cases detected up to a given date, the proposed model allows estimating the number of hospitalizations nine days in advance. Thus, it is a useful tool for forecasting the hospital pressure that health systems shall bear as a consequence of the disease.

icumonitoring.ch: a platform for short-term forecasting of intensive care unit occupancy during the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland.

In Switzerland, the COVID-19 epidemic is progressively slowing down owing to “social distancing” measures introduced by the Federal Council on 16 March 2020. However, the gradual ease of these measures may initiate a second epidemic wave, the length and intensity of which are difficult to anticipate. In this context, hospitals must prepare for a potential increase in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Here, we introduce icumonitoring.ch, a platform providing hospital-level projections for ICU occupancy. We combined current data on the number of beds and ventilators with canton-level projections of COVID-19 cases from two S-E-I-R models. We disaggregated epidemic projection in each hospital in Switzerland for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, hospitalisations in ICU, and ventilators in use. The platform is updated every 3-4 days and can incorporate projections from other modelling teams to inform decision makers with a range of epidemic scenarios for future hospital occupancy.

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Health Care Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. METHODS: We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory's COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. RESULTS: Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. CONCLUSIONS: Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

The Health Plan Environment In California Contributed To Differential Use Of Telehealth During The COVID-19 Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to substantial increases in the use of telehealth and virtual care in the US. Differential patient and provider access to technology and resources has raised concerns that existing health disparities may be extenuated by shifts to virtual care. We used data from one of the largest providers of employer-sponsored insurance, the California Public Employees' Retirement System, to examine potential disparities in the use of telehealth. We found that lower-income, non-White, and non-English-speaking people were more likely to use telehealth during the period we studied. These differences were driven by enrollment in a clinically and financially integrated care delivery system, Kaiser Permanente. Kaiser's use of telehealth was higher before and during the pandemic than that of other delivery models. Access to integrated care may be more important to the adoption of health technology than patient-level differences.

How to become a strategic purchaser of rehabilitation services.

Rehabilitative care is often overlooked and underfunded despite being a key component of universal health coverage, and now faces further neglect due to indirect impacts of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Policy-makers can leverage strategic purchasing approaches to make the most of available funds and maximize health gains. To implement more strategic purchasing of rehabilitation, health planners must: (i) develop and prioritize evidence-based rehabilitation service packages; (ii) use fit-for-purpose contracting and provider payment mechanisms to incentivize quality and efficient service delivery; and (iii) strengthen stewardship. This paper examines these three policy priorities by analysing their associated processes, actors and resources based on country experiences. Policy-makers will likely face several obstacles in operationalizing these policy priorities, including: inadequate accountability and coordination among sectors; limited data and research; undefined and non-standardized rehabilitation services, costs and outcomes; and inadequate availability of rehabilitative care. To overcome challenges and institute optimal strategic purchasing practices for rehabilitation, we recommend that policy-makers strengthen health sector stewardship and establish a framework for multisectoral collaboration, invest in data and research and make use of available experience from high-income settings, while creating a body of evidence from low- and middle-income settings.

Les soins de réadaptation sont souvent négligés et sous-financés malgré la place essentielle qu'ils occupent dans la couverture sanitaire universelle. Aujourd'hui, ils risquent même d'être relégués au second plan à la suite des conséquences indirectes de la pandémie de maladie à coronavirus 2019. Les responsables politiques peuvent néanmoins adopter des méthodes d'achat stratégiques afin de tirer le meilleur parti des fonds disponibles et de maximiser les bénéfices pour la santé. Pour ce faire, les planificateurs sanitaires doivent: (i) développer et privilégier les programmes de réadaptation étayés par des faits; (ii) utiliser des contrats adéquats et des mécanismes de paiement des fournisseurs qui mettent en valeur la qualité et l'efficacité des prestations de services; et enfin, (iii) renforcer les activités de gestion. Le présent document se penche sur ces trois priorités politiques en analysant les processus, acteurs et ressources qui y sont associés dans différents pays. Les décideurs seront probablement confrontés à de nombreux obstacles lors de la mise en œuvre de telles politiques: un manque de responsabilisation et de coordination entre secteurs; des recherches et données limitées; une absence de normalisation et de définition claire des services, coûts et résultats; et des soins de réadaptation en pénurie. Pour relever ces défis et instaurer des pratiques d'achat stratégiques optimales en matière de réadaptation, nous leur conseillons de renforcer la gestion du secteur de la santé et d'établir un cadre de collaboration multisectorielle, d'investir dans la recherche et la collecte de données, et de s'inspirer des expériences vécues dans les régions à revenu élevé tout en récoltant un ensemble de preuves dans les régions à revenu faible et intermédiaire.

La atención de rehabilitación suele pasar desapercibida y carecer de fondos a pesar de ser un componente clave de la cobertura sanitaria universal, y ahora se enfrenta a una mayor desatención debido a las repercusiones indirectas de la pandemia de la enfermedad por coronavirus de 2019. Los responsables de formular las políticas pueden aprovechar los enfoques de adquisición estratégica para sacar el máximo provecho de los fondos disponibles y maximizar los beneficios para la salud. Para aplicar una adquisición más estratégica en materia de rehabilitación, los planificadores sanitarios deben (i) desarrollar y priorizar paquetes de servicios de rehabilitación a partir de la evidencia; (ii) utilizar mecanismos de contratación y pago a proveedores adecuados para incentivar la calidad y la prestación eficiente de los servicios; y (iii) fortalecer la administración. El presente documento estudia estas tres prioridades políticas mediante el análisis de sus procesos, actores y recursos asociados, basándose en las experiencias de los países. Es probable que los responsables de formular las políticas se enfrenten a varios obstáculos a la hora de poner en práctica estas prioridades políticas, entre los que se incluyen: una responsabilidad y coordinación inadecuadas entre sectores; la limitación de los datos y la investigación; la falta de definición y estandarización de los servicios, los costes y los resultados de la rehabilitación; y la insuficiente disponibilidad de la atención de rehabilitación. Para superar los desafíos e instituir prácticas estratégicas óptimas de adquisición en materia de rehabilitación, se recomienda que los responsables de formular las políticas fortalezcan la administración del sector sanitario y establezcan un marco de colaboración multisectorial, inviertan en datos e investigación y aprovechen la experiencia disponible en entornos de ingresos altos, al tiempo que crean un conjunto de evidencias procedentes de entornos de ingresos bajos y medios.

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19. METHODS: We used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. We determined the country's capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing most to their risk. FINDINGS: Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Many countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Agence Nationale de la Recherche.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a university outbreak setting and implications for public health planning.

Whole genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has occurred at an unprecedented scale, and can be exploited for characterising outbreak risks at the fine-scale needed to inform control strategies. One setting at continued risk of COVID-19 outbreaks are higher education institutions, associated with student movements at the start of term, close living conditions within residential halls, and high social contact rates. Here we analysed SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences in combination with epidemiological data to investigate a large cluster of student cases associated with University of Glasgow accommodation in autumn 2020, Scotland. We identified 519 student cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with this large cluster through contact tracing data, with 30% sequencing coverage for further analysis. We estimated at least 11 independent introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the student population, with four comprising the majority of detected cases and consistent with separate outbreaks. These four outbreaks were curtailed within a week following implementation of control measures. The impact of student infections on the local community was short-term despite an underlying increase in community infections. Our study highlights the need for context-specific information in the formation of public health policy for higher educational settings.

Improving screening, treatment, and intervention for unhealthy alcohol use in primary care through clinic, practice-based research network, and health plan partnerships: Protocol of the ANTECEDENT study.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy alcohol use (UAU) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States, contributing to 95,000 deaths annually. When offered in primary care, screening, brief intervention, referral to treatment (SBIRT), and medication-assisted treatment for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) can effectively address UAU. However, these interventions are not yet routine in primary care clinics. Therefore, our study evaluates tailored implementation support to increase SBIRT and MAUD in primary care. METHODS: ANTECEDENT is a pragmatic implementation study designed to support 150 primary care clinics in Oregon adopting and optimizing SBIRT and MAUD workflows to address UAU. The study is a partnership between the Oregon Health Authority Transformation Center-state leaders in Medicaid health system transformation-SBIRT Oregon and the Oregon Rural Practice-based Research Network. We recruited clinics providing primary care in Oregon and prioritized reaching clinics that were small to medium in size (<10 providers). All participating clinics receive foundational support (i.e., a baseline assessment, exit assessment, and access to the online SBIRT Oregon materials) and may opt to receive tailored implementation support delivered by a practice facilitator over 12 months. Tailored implementation support is designed to address identified needs and may include health information technology support, peer-to-peer learning, workflow mapping, or expert consultation via academic detailing. The study aims are to 1) engage, recruit, and conduct needs assessments with 150 primary care clinics and their regional Medicaid health plans called Coordinated Care Organizations within the state of Oregon, 2) implement and evaluate the impact of foundational and supplemental implementation support on clinic change in SBIRT and MAUD, and 3) describe how practice facilitators tailor implementation support based on context and personal expertise. Our convergent parallel mixed-methods analysis uses RE-AIM (reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation, maintenance). It is informed by a hybrid of the i-PARIHS (integrated Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services) and the Dynamic Sustainability Framework. DISCUSSION: This study will explore how primary care clinics implement SBIRT and MAUD in routine practice and how practice facilitators vary implementation support across diverse clinic settings. Findings will inform how to effectively align implementation support to context, advance our understanding of practice facilitator skill development over time, and ultimately improve detection and treatment of UAU across diverse primary care clinics.

Heat-health action planning in the WHO European Region: Status and policy implications.

Adverse health effects from extreme heat remain a major risk, especially in a changing climate. Several European countries have implemented heat health action plans (HHAPs) to prevent ill health and excess mortality from heat. This paper assesses the state of implementation of HHAPs in the WHO European Region and discusses barriers and successes since the early 2000s. The results are based on a web-based survey among 53 member states on the current national and federal HHAPs in place. Guided by the eight core elements of HHAPs as outlined by the WHO Regional Office for Europe guidance from 2008, we analyzed which elements were fully or partially implemented and which areas of improvement countries identified. HHAP adaptations to account for COVID-19 were sought via literature search and expert consultations. 27 member states provided information, of which 17 countries reported having a HHAP. Five out of eight core elements, namely agreement on a lead body, accurate and timely alert systems, heat-related health information plans, strategies to reduce health exposure, and care for vulnerable groups, were at least partially implemented in all 17 plans. Alert systems were implemented most often at 94%. The least often implemented items were real-time surveillance, long-term urban planning, and preparedness of health and social systems. Five countries had published COVID-19 guidance online. Our findings suggest a progressive improvement in the development and rollout of HHAPs overall and awareness of vulnerable population groups in WHO/Europe, while integration of HHAPs into long-term climate change and health planning remains a challenge.